On the outskirts of Kenya’s capital, thousands of workers rely on one crucial trade agreement: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This 25-year-old U.S. law grants duty-free access to African-made goods, primarily clothing, fueling an industry that supports hundreds of thousands of livelihoods.
But AGOA is set to expire in September unless former U.S. President Donald Trump, now leading the White House again, agrees to extend it. With Trump’s well-documented skepticism toward free trade, the future of AGOA—and the thousands of jobs it sustains—remains uncertain.
A Thriving Industry Under Threat
United Aryan, one of Kenya’s largest garment manufacturers, ships up to eight million pairs of jeans to the U.S. annually, along with millions of shirts and other apparel. Since its establishment in 2002, the factory has transformed a once crime-ridden neighborhood into a bustling economic hub.
“We have 150,000 people who directly or indirectly depend on us,” said CEO Pankaj Bedi. “It has stabilized the socio-economic situation in the area.”
The factory employs 10,000 workers, with thousands more lining up daily outside its gates, hoping for a job. Workers earn an average of $200 per month—a decent wage in Kenya, allowing families to thrive.
“Our children go to school, crime has gone down,” said Norah Nasimiyu, a worker representative, as colleagues stitched denim and assembled garments on the factory floor.
Economic Uncertainty as Decision Looms
Despite its success, the industry has weathered significant challenges, including the 2005 influx of cheap Asian textiles, the 2008 financial crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, the potential loss of AGOA presents its most significant threat yet.
Without duty-free benefits, U.S. buyers may turn to lower-cost manufacturers in Asia, jeopardizing thousands of jobs. While both Republicans and Democrats in Congress support a 12-year extension of AGOA, Trump’s unpredictable trade policies cast doubt on its renewal.
“The U.S. benefits from Africa’s cheaper labor, especially in the cost-sensitive clothing sector,” said Bedassa Tadesse, an economics professor at the University of Minnesota Duluth. “But trade policy decisions today are no longer just about economics.”
Experts believe Trump could see AGOA as a strategic tool to counter China’s growing influence in Africa, especially after cutting billions in humanitarian aid. However, trade analyst Witney Schneidman warns the issue is likely not on Trump’s radar.
“It’s small change in Trump’s worldview, but critical for U.S.-Africa relations,” he said.
A Race Against Time
For United Aryan and its buyers, clarity on AGOA’s future is urgent. Without confirmation by March, supply chains will be disrupted, forcing U.S. clients to look elsewhere.
“Buyers are panicking,” said Bedi. “We’ve been assuring them it will be okay, but time is running out.”
As the deadline looms, the fate of thousands of Kenyan workers—and Africa’s broader textile industry—rests on a political decision thousands of miles away.
