At least 2,700 people are estimated to have died in England and Wales following two record-breaking heatwaves that swept across the United Kingdom two months ago and last month according to a new scientific study.
The research, conducted by experts from Imperial College London, the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, linked the deaths to prolonged periods of extreme heat using weather data, climate models and established evidence on excess mortality during heatwaves.
The study estimates that about 550 people died during two months ago heatwave, while nearly 2,200 deaths were linked to the hotter conditions experienced last month.
The UK and much of Europe recorded unprecedented temperatures during the two heatwaves, with England reaching monthly records of 35.1°C two months ago and 37.7°C last month.
“They were extreme heatwaves for the UK, and for all parts of western Europe, and they’re particularly exceptional for the timing and how early in the year they occurred,” said Mark McCarthy, science manager of the Met Office’s climate attribution team.
Researchers said climate change significantly increased the intensity of the heatwaves, estimating that peak daytime temperatures were 3°C to 4°C higher than they would have been without global warming.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is expected to publish its official estimate of heat-related deaths in the coming weeks based on registered death records.
Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UKHSA’s Centre for Climate and Health Security, said the modelling “helps illustrate the scale of risk associated with extreme heat and the growing threat climate change poses to our wellbeing.”
The findings come as concerns grow over Britain’s preparedness for increasingly frequent extreme weather events.
Last year, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the government’s independent climate adviser, warned that the UK was “not ready” to cope with the impacts of climate change.
In a separate report published this year, the committee projected that 92% of British homes could become dangerously hot by 2050. It urged the government to introduce maximum workplace temperature limits and increase investment in cooling systems for public buildings, including hospitals and schools.
