The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its economic growth forecast for Nigeria to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, citing improved macroeconomic indicators, stronger investor confidence, and fiscal stability.
The IMF disclosed this in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released during the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., noting that Nigeria stands out among developing economies with positive revisions despite global economic uncertainty.
“Growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and limited exposure to higher U.S. tariffs,” said IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas during a press briefing.
Nigeria Outpaces Global Growth Amid Global Slowdown
While the global economy is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, Nigeria is defying the trend. The IMF highlighted key contributors to Nigeria’s positive outlook:
- Stability in exchange rate
- Rising foreign reserves
- Increased oil production
- Rebased GDP
- Improved macroeconomic fundamentals
These factors have not only boosted investor confidence but are also expected to position Nigeria as one of the top-performing African economies through 2026.
CBN Governor Cardoso: Nigeria’s Economy Has Been Restructured
Also speaking in Washington, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, said that the fiscal and monetary reforms initiated under President Bola Tinubu’s administration have restructured the Nigerian economy, making it more resilient and capable of withstanding global shocks.
“We now have a more competitive currency, and for once, we have a positive trade balance. We expect this to account for up to six percent of GDP in the near term,” Cardoso said at the G-24 press briefing.
He added that Nigeria’s reduced reliance on imports and a shift toward local production and export-led growth are major signs of an economic transformation.
“What is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy. We are encouraging people to go into domestic production and discouraging imports,” he noted.
Nigeria Building Economic Buffers Against Global Shocks
Cardoso emphasized that Nigeria’s economic structure now includes strong buffers to weather global uncertainties, including trade tensions and tariff wars.
“Oil was the only commodity relatively exposed to tariffs, and even that impact was modest. Our early reforms have positioned us well to handle future global risks,” he said.
The CBN Governor also praised the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) for facilitating global dialogue on pressing economic challenges, noting that although global growth remains slow, it has performed better than many feared.
